Nelson Mandela was the glue that held the deeply divided ANC
together. Before his passing, he had been ill and out of active politics for
many years, yet his mere presence had remained a powerful symbol for the ANC's
rank and file. Mandela was a reminder of past glories, and a symbol of the hope
that the ruling ANC might yet return to its democratic, caring and responsive
roots.
Many ANC supporters believed that he either endorsed the
current leadership, or was still involved in decision-making. This is one of
the reasons why President Zuma and others in the leadership would wheel a
clearly frail Mandela to campaign rallies, and why they were so keen to be
photographed with him.
For some years now, the ANC's hegemony has been straining
under the weight of its inability to reduce poverty or deliver jobs and
effective public services. With Mandela gone, it is likely that its many disillusioned
supporters may find it easier to accept that the current ANC and its leadership
has veered so far from the values of Mandela it is a different party in all but
name. As a result, we could now see the ANC break up, splinter or fragment as
its members and supporters abandon it.
Next year's crucial national election is likely to be the
most contested since the ANC came to power in 1994. The ANC may enjoy an
electoral bounce as some voters give the party one last chance for the sake of
Mandela. But this will be temporary. The ANC lacks the quality of leadership it
needs to renew the party; it is also not open to fresh leadership or ideas. Too
arrogant and dismissive of constructive criticism to be genuinely
introspective, the party seems unable to reverse the decline.
This could be good news for the country's democracy. South
Africa's existing political party system is not fit for purpose. The old
parties – the ANC and those of the opposition – are so steeped in pre-apartheid
political cultures that they are wholly inappropriate as instruments to deepen
the infant democracy.
Recently, there have been a number of small breakaway
parties from either the ANC or the existing opposition parties. However, most
of them, too, are inadequate. While most of the ANC's disillusioned black
supporters are to the party's political left, all the opposition parties and
the parties formed after 1994 are to the ANC's right, and therefore irrelevant
to ANC members looking for a new political home.Even Agang, launched recently
by the former black consciousness leader Mamphela Ramphele, is on the right
flank of the ANC, and is more likely to appeal to South Africa's small black
middle class rather than the majority-black township and rural poor.
Julius Malema, the expelled former president of the ANC
Youth League, astutely understanding the vacuum in South Africa's electoral
firmament, has also formed a new party, Economic Freedom Fighters. It has
leftist populist political and economic messages, and is aimed at the country's
restless youth. However, South Africa's democratic system would be better
served by a genuinely democratic mainstream trade union-based party to the left
of the ANC.
This may soon happen. The Congress of South African Trade
Unions (Cosatu) is the ANC's most powerful union ally. It backed Zuma for the
ANC presidency in 2007 in the hope that he would push for a deepening of
democracy and more inclusive development. Some Cosatu affiliates and leaders
are now realising this was a mistake. Cosatu's largest affiliate, the National
Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa), is considering launching a trade
union-based party, aligned with civil society, not unlike Lula da Silva's
socialist party in Brazil.
Recognising the threat, ANC leaders have recently promised
all sorts of rewards to rebellious trade unionists. But the arrival of a new
party with a base in the trade union movement may yet breathe new energy into a
paralysed party political system.
